US-Iran war impact: India’s crude oil imports from Russia are set to hit an all–time high in June, according to data from Kpler, a global real-time data and analytics provider. Russia has been the biggest supplier of crude oil for India for some years now, after Moscow’s war with Ukraine made Russian crude lucrative for New Delhi.The monthly imports saw a dip from late last year when sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil forced Indian refiners to look for alternatives. However, before a clear trend could emerge, the US-Iran conflict began, disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East.With a US sanctions waiver in place for three months, India stepped up Russian crude oil procurement, and import levels touched near all-time highs.
Russian Crude Imports At All Time High
According to analysis of data by Sumit Ritolia, Manager Modelling and Refining at Kpler, India’s crude imports from Russia could hit an all time high of 2.35 million barrels per day in June. Kpler data till June 19, 2026 shows the imports averaging at 2.66 million barrels per day. The previous high was in May 2023, when the average imports stood at 2,158 thousand barrels per day.“India’s imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand. Russian barrels remain competitive against global benchmarks,” Sumit Ritolia told TOI.Russia has been the biggest supplier of crude oil for India since the US-Iran war. Data shows that it has supplied over 270 million barrels of crude since the war began, almost five times the next supplier – Saudi Arabia.The Kpler analyst is of the view that India’s crude import strategy has shifted sharply since March 2026 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened Middle Eastern flows and increased freight risks. “Russian crude remains the backbone of India’s import slate, while refiners have diversified aggressively toward Atlantic Basin and Venezuelan barrels to offset weaker Gulf availability. Looking ahead, India’s crude mix is expected to remain broadly unchanged,with supply security and economics continuing to favour Russian and non-SoH-linked barrels,” Ritolia says.In fact, Ritolia is of the view that regardless of whether the US waiver is extended, India’s imports of Russian crude will remain robust, even if not at record-high levels. The Donald Trump administration quietly allowed the sanctions waiver on Russian crude to expire this week. In the past, the waiver was extended a few days after it lapsed, but with a US-Iran peace MoU signed and hopes of Strait of Hormuz disruptions ending, this waiver may not be extended.
Middle East Oil Flows
The Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point for global energy markets following this week’s interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is expected to facilitate the gradual resumption of maritime traffic. During the conflict, oil and gas shipments through the route had almost come to a standstill as restrictions imposed by both Tehran and Washington severely disrupted trade. Vessel movement has since begun recovering, with ships slowly returning to the corridor.Data compiled by Kpler quoted in a Bloomberg report shows that India’s imports of Middle Eastern crude, much of which is sourced through term contracts, dropped in the second quarter to their lowest level since at least 2013. To compensate for the loss of Persian Gulf supplies, state-run refiners increased spot purchases from alternative sources, including Russia and countries in South America.